From January to February 2022, China's total social logistics volume was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% at comparable prices, and the growth rate of total social logistics continued to rise since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level of 2019 before the epidemic, showing that the overall logistics demand is still in the recovery channel, and the logistics operation has started steadily.
From a structural point of view, internally, the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand to promote consumption continued to appear, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics maintained rapid growth; Externally, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to a normal level, and the demand for imported logistics continues to fall.
The demand for industrial logistics has grown rapidly, and the new momentum has continued to strengthen
After the holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained rapid growth. From January to February, the total logistics volume of industrial products increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From a structural point of view, new kinetic energy continues to exert force, and the supporting role of industrial logistics demand is enhanced. From January to February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.4% and 9.6% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points faster than that in December last year.
From the perspective of industries, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and instrument manufacturing all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rate accelerated month-on-month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than that in December last year, of which the output of new energy vehicles in particular increased by 150.5% year-on-year, continuing to grow rapidly on the basis of doubling the previous year.
The recovery of people's livelihood consumption and logistics demand has accelerated, and new business formats have continued to develop
From January to February, driven by online network promotion factors such as the "Online New Year Festival", the logistics demand for consumer goods manufacturing at the production end accelerated its recovery, and the logistics demand for e-commerce online shopping on the sales side continued to heat up. From the perspective of production, the recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry has accelerated, and the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry in January and February increased by 9.7% year-on-year, 5.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From the sales side, the new business format is still obvious, from January to February, the total logistics of units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year, and the e-commerce logistics index showed that the e-commerce logistics business volume increased by more than 25% year-on-year in the first two months, and the rural business volume increased by nearly 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
The increase in import prices fell and the demand for logistics continued to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on China's related imports. The data shows that from January to February, the flow of imports fell by 3.5% year-on-year, declining for five consecutive months. However, it should also be noted that since the beginning of this year, the decline in import material flow has narrowed month-on-month, and with the gradual recovery of China's economy and supply chain in the future, the scale of imports will also expand.
From the perspective of import structure, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite and steel has declined, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 14.0% and 7.9% respectively due to the sharp rise in prices and other factors. Among agricultural products, the demand for meat imports maintained a downward trend, down 33% year-on-year.
The scale of the logistics market is expanding and the industry is accelerating consolidation
The scale of the logistics market continues to expand, and industry consolidation accelerates. Since 2021, the market scale of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the growth rate of total revenue of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, faster than the level of 2019 before the epidemic.
With the development and growth of new kinetic energy, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, which puts forward higher requirements for logistics services, especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has been significantly accelerated, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The proportion of revenue of China's top 50 logistics enterprises has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industrial concentration has increased steadily. According to the data of the State Post Bureau, the express and parcel service brand concentration index CR8 from January to February was 85.3, a significant increase compared with the whole year of 2021 and the same period.
The transportation business is growing rapidly, and the logistics enterprises are operating more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the freight volume of the whole society increased by 15.5% year-on-year in February, of which the road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the perspective of enterprise business, the total business index rose in February, with the index rebounding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by factors such as the resumption of work and production, the physical volume of the logistics industry and the business volume of enterprises have maintained a good growth trend, while the logistics has maintained relatively efficient operation efficiency. In February, the capital turnover index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry prosperity index both rose by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises took the initiative to improve the efficiency of capital use, improve the timeliness of logistics equipment operations, and play a certain role in adjusting the tight balance between supply and demand of personnel in the first two months of the year.
On the whole, in the first two months of this year, the macro economy continued to recover, and the growth rate of logistics demand remained at a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new orders index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index were 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, both higher than the previous month, of which the business activity expectation index ran in the high boom range for two consecutive months, indicating that logistics enterprises have good expectations for the development of the industry.
However, it should also be noted that since March, instability and uncertainties have increased, and it has become more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
From the perspective of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some regions is still ongoing, and the development level of various industries and regions is uneven. At the same time, the geopolitical conflict is still continuing, which may bring about the poor cross-border logistics channel in the European direction, the tight capacity, the rising freight rate, and the increased pressure on the supply chain to ensure the supply and stabilize the price of key commodities, which needs to be tracked and analyzed and paid close attention.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are rising, the pressure of raw materials and labor costs has increased, and the foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further consolidated:
First, the linkage between the price and cost of logistics services is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continued to rise, the price of logistics services did not increase significantly. In February, the service price index of the logistics industry prosperity index did not rise but fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the price of road logistics and coastal bulk freight fell month-on-month, showing that in the context of the current homogeneous competition of freight services, the bargaining power of the industry is low, and there is a certain lag in the linkage between cost and logistics service prices.
Second, the profitability of the industry is under further pressure. According to the key survey data, from January to February, the logistics business cost of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating income was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, under the influence of factors such as rising commodity prices and structural labor shortages, fuel costs and labor costs rose by more than double digits respectively. From the perspective of profitability, the loss of key logistics enterprises in January and February was nearly 30%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, resulting in further compression of profit margins. The overall revenue margin was around 3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the damage of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is more obvious, and the revenue profit margin of small and micro logistics enterprises is less than 3%, which is lower than the same period last year, and there is a large gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.